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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."